Analysis: What could Johnson’s departure mean for farmers?

Boris Johnson is yesterday’s man. All eyes now are on who will put themselves forward to be the next Conservative Party leader and prime minister.

Mr Johnson currently seems determined to cling on until the results of the Conservative Party leadership contest are known, but Labour says if he does not go immediately it will call a vote of no confidence in the government, which could even trigger a general election.

George Eustice, who did not resign, is still a member of the cabinet and looks set to stick around, at least until Mr Johnson leaves, so there will be no immediate change at Defra. His silence this week has been complete.

See also: Farming industry reacts to Boris Johnson’s resignation

However, the environment secretary is now without Rebecca Pow (minister for environment) and Jo Churchill (minister for agri-innovation and climate adaptation), who both resigned.

Ms Churchill’s loss may be felt most keenly, as she was responsible for shepherding the gene editing bill currently moving through parliament.

But how much could Defra policy change under a new prime minister?

The Tories are loosely split between a Thatcherite libertarian wing which favours tax cuts and reducing the size of government, and so-called one nation Tories who are happy to intervene and spend more.

If the new leader emerges from the latter camp – Jeremy Hunt, say – and appoints a cabinet on that basis, then Defra policy would be more likely to follow the status quo.

But if an out-and-out cost-cutter takes the reins, such as Suella Braverman or Sajid Javid, then departments like Defra are tipped to bear the brunt.

COP 26 has been and gone. The cost of living crisis is front and centre. Influential backbenchers such as Steve Baker have already been taking aim at the spending required for the green agenda.

The government has set itself ambitious targets to cut emissions in legislation, and farmers are vital to that work, meaning environmental schemes have a fair amount of protection – but it would be a mistake to regard them as completely safe.

The ambitions for the higher tiers of Environmental Land Management (ELM) could be pared back, as could, in theory, the budgets distributed from Westminster to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland for their future environmental schemes.

For now, we wait and see who will emerge victorious from this latest chapter in the Tory party psychodrama.