Marathon meeting for final decision on reform of CAP
Marathon meeting for final decision on reform of CAP
Political horse-trading and last-minute deals
make predicting the outcome of CAPreform
a difficult task. Europe editor Philip Clarke
makes some suggestions on what the
final package may look like
EU farm ministers sit down for what promises to be one of their longest meetings in recent history next week.
Told that they have to reach political agreement on CAP reform before they can go home, fears are mounting that discussions could run into next weekend.
This concern has not dampened enthusiasm for speculating on the final outcome, however, and some clues were in evidence this week as farm ministers attended face-to-face discussions with council president Karl-Heinz Funke and EU farm commissioner Franz Fischler.
UK farm minister Nick Brown was first through their door. Mr Brown is looking for meaningful price cuts – in line with the proposed 30% reduction for beef and 20% cut for cereals, and more than the 15% cut planned for milk.
Any compensation should be phased out over time, milk quotas should be abandoned in 2006 and set-aside abolished immediately.
But while the UK has been one of the commissions staunchest supporters – going along with just about everything it has suggested – Mr Fischler and Mr Funke were in for a rougher ride from Irish minister Joe Walsh, one of Agenda 2000s severest critics.
Mr Walsh wants the minimum changes possible – smaller price cuts, increased compensation, extra financial resources. He says anything less would damage Irish farmers incomes and is totally unacceptable.
Of the other delegations, France was expected to press for higher oilseed area aid, Austria to push for the retention of set-aside and Italy to demand more milk quota.
Over the past six weeks, member states have tended to move towards the commissions proposals, which has increased the likelihood of Mr Fischler achieving the price cuts he is after for beef and cereals.
But he will have more of a problem with milk, where a large group of countries – led by France and Ireland – still resist change. But the UK and Italy will ensure some reform takes place, with price cuts of between 5% and 10% looking more likely than the 15% the commission is after.
Full compensation still seems a tall order, though cereal producers in particular should get more than the 50% currently on offer.
For beef there is likely to be more flexibility for allocating direct aid, to balance the conflicting demands of the intensive and extensive producers. National envelopes will have a part to play in this.
Dairy farmers should get 2% more quota, though the idea of giving this to producers in mountain areas is likely to be dropped. There will probably be a commitment for a further review of milk quotas in 2002/03.
Overall, the arable reforms are less contentious. But it is harder to predict what will emerge on set-aside – 0% or 10%? – and oilseeds – the same area aid as cereals or higher?
As for future funding, it seems certain that "degressivity" will be part of the package. Finance ministers will only allow the cost of CAP to rise in the first few years of reform, as long as it is reduced thereafter. Trimming aid payments annually is the most satisfactory way of achieving this, with some of the money recycled into rural development.
With so many conflicting interests, the chances of success next week still seem daunting. But farm ministers are under real pressure to come up with some deal, if they are not to risk having their hands tied by finance ministers.