Farming minister Spencer forecast to lose seat at election

Defra farming minister Mark Spencer is one of 20 Conservative MPs who are in danger of losing their seats in the next general election, according to new polling by the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) and Survation.

The survey of more than 1,000 people in England’s 100 most rural constituencies reveals an 18% swing away from the Conservatives compared with the 2019 general election, and a 16% surge for Labour.

See also: Farmer support for Tories waning as problems mount up

So, while the Conservatives hold 96 of those rural seats, if this swing is replicated in 2024, then 20 of them will be lost.

Among the most vulnerable is Defra farming minister Mark Spencer, MP for Sherwood since 2010 – although the pollsters describe his potential loss to Labour as “close”.

Other high-profile MPs in danger include Jacob Rees-Mogg, MP for North East Somerset, and Liam Fox, MP for North Somerset, who are both forecast to lose to Labour.

Chancellor of the exchequer Jeremy Hunt is expected to lose his South West Surrey seat to the Liberal Democrats.

The reasons for the shift in political preference is also spelled out by the survey, which evidences mounting frustration with the present government’s management of the economy and a lack of understanding of rural communities.

“This polling shows that political parties are paying an electoral price for their failure to unlock the potential of the rural economy, or to provide the business environment necessary to generate growth,” said CLA president Mark Tufnell.

“The outdated planning regime holding rural businesses back, the lack of affordable housing driving families out, the outdated infrastructure limiting entrepreneurs’ potential – it is all having a devastating impact.”

With 12 million voters living in rural areas, Mr Tufnell suggested that any party which is willing to develop a robust and ambitious plan for the rural economy will secure significant support at the next election.