Farmer confidence shattered as Reeves’ Budget takes its toll

Farming confidence has been shattered by the announcements contained in Labour’s Autumn Budget, with farmers more concerned about their future prospects than at any time in the past eight years.

That much is clear from the responses to our latest annual Sentiment Survey, which shows clearly how chancellor Rachel Reeves’ declarations on 30 October had an almost instant impact on farmer perceptions.

See also: Survey 2024 – politics and weather weigh heavy on the sector

With the survey conducted either side of the Budget, and with a record number taking part, it has been possible to determine how farmer confidence has been decimated. 

The year just passed has been tough enough anyway, with more farmers than ever before (37%) reporting a “bad” or “terrible” year, according to our survey.

But while “government policy” was cited as the top challenge by just 9% of respondents ahead of the Budget, that figure shot up to 25% in the days afterwards as the impact, not just of inheritance tax, but of rising labour costs and cuts to direct payments struck home.

Looking at prospects for the year ahead, the impacts of the fiscal announcements are even more apparent.

Ahead of the Budget, 44% of respondents said they were feeling either “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” about their business prospects. After the Budget, that figure shot up to 61%.

In terms of what they thought would be the main farming challenges for 2025, “government policy” soared to the top of the list.

Reaction

Martin Williams, a Herefordshire-based farmer and one of the leaders of last November’s London Farming Rally, said the findings came as little surprise. 

“It’s disappointing to see the negative sentiment among farmers directed so heavily towards government after such a turbulent period in agriculture,” he said.

“The Budget was an unfolding disaster as the pages were read.

“It impacts everybody in agriculture in one way or another, and every consumer in the country – a more disastrous Budget I have yet to see in my lifetime.”

Farmers’ Union of Wales president Ian Rickman shared this sense of frustration.

“For years, there has been growing discontent in the sector surrounding the Welsh government’s inaction over bovine TB, and introduction of the unfit for purpose NVZ [nitrate vulnerbale zone] regulations,” he said.

“Early 2024 saw the situation reach boiling point with the unveiling of the outline proposals for the Sustainable Farming Scheme [SFS].

“While some progress has been made since then regarding SFS, much of this has been overshadowed by the UK government’s reform of inheritance tax, which has caused a feeling of betrayal within the farming sector.”

Gemma Cooper, NFU Scotland head of policy, said farmers and crofters were facing “huge uncertainty” north of the border, too, pointing to recent Scottish budget announcements, the Land Reform Bill, and changes to Scottish agricultural policy.