Scots weigh up effects of free-trade deals

Scottish sheep and beef outputs are forecast to fall sharply as a result of new free-trade agreements, according to industry analysis.

The liberalisation of free-trade agreements could see Scottish sheepmeat output drop by 10.5-11.1%, while beef output could fall by 2.8-6.1%.

A report produced on behalf of the Scottish government by the Andersons Centre outlines the effect of selected UK free-trade deals on producers in Scotland.

It focuses on the effects of free-trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

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Scottish rural affairs secretary Mairi Gougeon said: “While the dairy sector is best positioned to see export growth, there are some specific threats posed to Scottish sheepmeat and beef, with imports from trading partners such as Australia and New Zealand expected to exert significant pressure.”

Ms Gougeon added that the report shows the current UK government trade approach is not working in the interests of Scottish agriculture.

Andersons partner and co-author of the report, Michael Haverty, said agreements with Australia and New Zealand were the main drivers of future declines for Scottish sheepmeat output.

It found that although the impact of the selected free-trade agreements is limited, some agricultural sectors will be more adversely affected than others, and the cumulative effects of future agreements is likely to be more significant.

Beef

Although the Scottish beef sector is also expected to come under pressure, there are some opportunities for exports from the trade deals.

Mr Haverty said: “While imports from Australia and New Zealand will create more competition, a trade deal with Canada is likely to generate some export opportunities. Given the brand recognition of Scotch beef, it should be relatively well positioned to exploit such niches.”

Dairy

Free-trade agreements could see growth in outputs for the Scottish dairy sector of 3-9%, according to the report.

The dairy sector in Scotland is well positioned to grow exports to countries within the Gulf Cooperation Council, and small volumes of dairy products could also be exported to Canada.

Cereals and potatoes

The report found that the free-trade agreements are likely to result in increased imports of wheat from Canada, but trade deals are likely to have a minimal effect on barley imports.

Potato output is not expected to be affected much by the agreements.