Analysis: 7 years after Brexit, farmers count the cost

Increased red tape, a worsening economic situation, damaging free-trade deals, a trail of broken promises – it seems that farmers and those working in the ancillary industries are far from satisfied with Brexit.

That is the inevitable conclusion from a new survey by Farmers Weekly into how the agricultural sector now perceives Brexit, seven years on from the historic referendum of 23 June, 2016.

See also: How did farmers feel about Brexit in 2017?

Conducted in late May and early June, the survey attracted more than 900 responses, covering all sectors and including those who work on farms, as well as those from elsewhere in the industry.

Asked whether they believed Brexit had had a positive or negative effect on the UK economy, the overriding sentiment was negative, with about three quarters of all respondents feeling that way.

And asked about the state of their own businesses due to Brexit, a similar picture emerged, with 69% saying it had been either “fairly negative” or “very negative”.

Different sectors

Looking at how this has panned out between different sectors of farming, it is clear that the old adage “up corn, down horn” does not apply – both arable farmers and livestock farmers seem equally disappointed.

According to the survey, some 70% of the farmers who grow cereals said Brexit had been negative for their businesses, while 76% of oilseed rape growers felt that way.

Similarly, 68% of farmers with beef cattle, dairy cows or sheep had a negative perception.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the two sectors that were even more negative were those growing vegetables (81%) and those keeping pigs (79%).

Both have been especially hard hit by the reduced availability of pickers and slaughterhouse workers, who used to comprise a significant part of the workforce before Brexit limited their ability to work in the UK.

It was also not unexpected to find that those farmers who voted in favour of leaving the EU back in 2016 (about 54% according to several surveys conducted by Farmers Weekly at the time) were slightly more upbeat in this latest survey.

Of this group, just 36% said they felt Brexit had been negative for their businesses, while 30% said it had actually been “fairly positive” or “very positive”, compared with 12% who shared this view across the whole survey of more than 800 farmers.

In particular, these more upbeat farmers pointed to better commodity prices since Brexit, but also greater freedom to run their businesses free from intervention from Brussels.

“I have my sovereignty back,” said one satisfied Welsh farmer.

Other factors

Clearly, farm businesses have been affected by more than just Brexit over the past seven years – the global pandemic, political upheavals in Westminster and the war in Ukraine have all played a major part in farming’s fortunes.

But fallout from that 2016 referendum has been considerable, with several factors highlighted for the negative perception at farm level.

Most notable, according to the survey, has been the increase in input costs, which farmers seem to attribute to Brexit, with 27% mentioning this as a primary concern.

But the phasing out of the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS), which is already well under way in England, also attracted a lot of criticism.

“The end of BPS is putting the medium- and long-term viability of my business at risk,” said one disgruntled English respondent.

Another added: “UK farming will not survive without support. We are in the Sustainable Farming Incentive pilot, but the system is flawed as all payments – and for Countryside Stewardship – are based on ‘income foregone’.”

A third commented: “The EU will retain subsidies, while the UK needs to produce to the same standards to be able to trade with the EU, but with far lower subsidies. We need to be on a level playing field.”

Red tape and trade deals

Issues around red tape, and the government’s drive to sign new free-trade deals, also featured strongly.

On red tape, a clear majority felt that, despite pre-Brexit promises of a “bonfire of red tape” once the UK had left the EU, the reverse is true.

(This might also explain why 86% of the farmers and industry stakeholders taking part in the survey believed that politicians’ Brexit promises had been broken.)

There was, however, a clear distinction between how farmers and non-farmers viewed this issue.

While 58% of farmers believed paperwork and bureaucracy had become “a bit” worse or “much” worse as a result of Brexit, that figure shot up to 90% for those working in the ancillary sectors.

This probably reflects the fact that for many farmers – especially those in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – not a lot has changed yet in terms of accessing government support schemes.

But for farm consultants, or those involved in the supply side of the industry, or those trading commodities, there is no doubt that life has become more complicated.

Among the different farm types, it is fruit and vegetable growers who are feeling the most impact of additional red tape – possibly linked to the issues many have faced with securing overseas labour in the post-Brexit world.

Small farmers – those with less than 20ha – also felt the burden of paperwork had increased.

There was also a high level of scepticism about the free-trade deals the UK government has been so keen to forge since leaving the EU, with 31% saying the deals done so far were “fairly bad” for British farming, and 48% saying they were “very bad”.

It might have been expected that livestock and dairy producers would be the most disparaging, given the likely long-term impact of duty-free imports of meat, butter and cheese from Australia and New Zealand, but there was actually little difference according to farm type, region or demographic.

It seems everyone is equally dismayed by the trade impact.

Survey reveals ‘seven-year itch’ when it comes to Brexit

Seven years on from the historic Brexit referendum, it seems that farmers and those working in the ancillary industries are feeling something of a seven-year itch, with many now willing to change the way they would vote.

When we asked our readership how they had voted in December 2016 (six months after the referendum) and again in December 2017 (18 months after), we found that around 54% of farmers said they had opted for Brexit.

We also asked them if they would change the way they would vote were the referendum held again, and almost nobody said they would – there was just about a 1% or 2% swing either way.

Seven years down the line, that seems to have changed significantly. When we asked this time, the survey suggested an 8% swing from “leave” to “remain” if they could vote again.

Better or worse?

Despite this, some people felt Brexit had turned out better than expected – 17%, according to our latest survey.

“We now have a voice which can be heard in Westminster. Before, the unelected grey men in Brussels did not listen and made British agriculture a third-world business,” said one owner-occupier in the South East.

But the vast majority (83%) said Brexit has been worse than expected. “It is not a good idea to cut ties with the biggest free-trading bloc that’s right on your doorstep,” said one north-west farmer.

There was also a degree of enthusiasm to hold another referendum and rejoin the EU, with just over half (52%) supporting such a move.

Failing that, 70% of farmers surveyed felt that the UK should at least rejoin the single European market – a figure that rose to 85% in the case of those working in the ancillary industries.