Editor’s View: Winter Fair drama goes down a treat
NFU president Tom Bradshaw met with prime minister Sir Keir Starmer to discuss the government's inheritance tax policy © NFU To the Welsh Winter Fair this week, one of the UK’s best events for red meat producers.
The alleys were thronged, the trade stands falling over themselves to hand out cups of tea and mince pies and, as always, the livestock looked excellent.
Discounting the recent Budget shenanigans, there is seemingly a lot to be positive about for Welsh beef and sheep farmers, as well as their counterparts in the rest of the UK.
See also: Welsh Government drops controversial 10% tree cover plan
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Prices for finished livestock continue to hit fresh highs and – with cereal prices in the doldrums – have surely been running well ahead of the cost of production for some time.
But as we see in this week’s Markets section, it has not stopped livestock numbers sliding lower, and AHDB forecasts all point towards yet more contraction in the next few years, particularly in the beef herd.
The arguments as to why this is happening despite high prices are well known – high fixed costs in suckler cows, bovine TB, ageing workforce, and so forth.
But it is still worth asking the question: how high does the price have to be and how long would it be before we see livestock numbers grow again?
I suspect it is more a fear that these high prices cannot be maintained in the long term than folk feeling they haven’t yet reached a high enough price to make money.
There was even good news for Welsh farmers from the politicians, as Welsh Labour’s deputy first minister with responsibility for rural affairs, Huw Irranca-Davies, arrived to deliver an update on the Sustainable Farming Scheme.
When appearing in front of the press, most politicians have a slightly haunted – or hunted – look about them. Not Mr Irranca-Davies.
There’s something about the combination of a healthier-than-average tan, groomed goatee and lean figure that gives him the air of a kindly TV detective – not one of those gritty ones with a troubled past.
And he’s taken a starring role in this year’s biggest Welsh farm policy drama – The Mystery of How to Fashion a Suitable BPS Replacement Scheme.
This week’s episode had a stunning plot twist in which the much-maligned 10% tree cover proposal from earlier in the series was flung on the scrapheap.
Come back for the thrilling conclusion to series one next summer, when the scheme’s payment rates will be published and the audience can decide whether Huw is hero or villain.
In all seriousness, though, Builth Wells felt even further removed than usual from what has been happening in Westminster.
It seemed almost revolutionary to watch farm union leaders offering cautious support for the actions of a Labour politician with whom they have held many months of detailed discussions.
And what of the latest on the prospects for a U-turn on inheritance tax?
It was pleasing to see the prime minister at least sit down with NFU president Tom Bradshaw for a meeting on the topic, even as the former maintained his firm defence of the policy in public.
If the government was considering how it could make this problem go away, that is how it would start the ball rolling.
But as yet, nothing more than tiny flickers of optimism…