Report warns of shortfall in UK agricultural land by 2030
Up to seven million hectares more farmland could be needed in the UK by 2030 to meet demand for the growing population, new analysis suggests.
The report, The Best Use of UK Agricultural Land, says that by 2030 the UK could require up to 7m ha of additional land to meet the country’s needs for food, space and renewable energy.
This represents more than 35% of the UK’s existing agricultural land – and compares with up to 5m ha that might be available.
The study predicts an increase in demand for UK land of between 2-7m ha by 2030. However, an increase in supply of land of between 1-5m ha is forecast by the same year. A potential 2m ha shortfall would occur in the event of the maximum increase in demand and supply.
According to the latest Defra figures, agriculture covers 17.3m ha of the UK, representing 71% of the total land area.
Of this area, 71% is used as grassland and 28% is arable. Of the arable land, 44% is used for wheat production, 17% for oilseed rape and 28% for maize/oats/barley.
Cambridge-hosted Natural Capital Leaders Platform published the report in collaboration with Asda, Sainsbury’s, Nestlé, BOCM Pauls, AB Agri, Yara, BASF, Volac, the NFU and CLA.
The report quantifies a number of measures that could help to meet additional demand, including improving yields and reducing food waste.
But it warned that these initiatives might not be sufficient to close the gap, in which case “difficult choices” would need to be made.
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Dr Andrea Graham, chief land management adviser at the NFU, said: “While there are complex trade-offs and tough choices ahead on land use, this report shows that agricultural land will need to be multi-functional, delivering a range of goods and services.
“We will need the full range of tools to meet future demand, employing the very best technology and innovation to drive efficiency, quality, yields and profitability.”
Andy Richardson, Volac’s head of corporate communications, added: “Lack of leadership in this area has the potential to compromise our future food and energy security.
“We should take the opportunity to join up thinking between industry and government by building on this report’s analysis and developing a decision making framework and an action plan.”
The UK population is projected to hit more than 70 million by 2030, including 14.6 million senior citizens. Such population growth will make increasing demands on food, water, energy and other resources.
The report aimed to understand the amount of additional land needed and provide a simple, clear vision for UK agricultural land use alongside a set of principles to guide future decision-making.
It is available to download here.
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