Regional outlook: Low supply of north Wales farmland may pick up

A continuing slim supply of farmland in the north Wales market is keeping prices firm, although this may be about to change as the effect of lower support payments and farmgate prices bites.

Demand remains strong for quality pasture, but the importance of location has increased and most buyers will only act if the price is right.

Agents on the ground report that low commodity prices have started to affect buyer confidence and could lead to forced sales this year in dairy and sheep, while others fear that the effect of this and support payment changes are still to show.

See also: Regional outlook: Low farmgate prices will push more farms on to market in north of England

As part of Farmers Weekly’s latest regional land focus, land agents in north Wales share their insight.

Tony Rimmer, Rostons, North Wales

• With certain geographic exceptions, the main trend in 2015 in north Wales was that the market slowed. I would not say interest dropped – people were just more cautious, particularly as commodity prices in all sectors reduced.
• I see this trend continuing. Dairying is becoming extremely difficult and the main focus for dairy farms is going to be the milk contract and who it is with.
• Generally, the market is underpinned by farmers looking to expand their base, but there are some investors and those with rollover money.
• We have seen a similar amount of land available as in previous years. The main driver has been commodity prices – changes to subsidy payments may to a certain extent have had an influence, but only limited.
• The main sector under pressure is dairy, but sheep and beef are also feeling the pressure.
• Good productive arable or pasture land is creating the most interest and the more marginal land is harder to sell. For bare land, location is becoming more prevalent.

Rosie Wilson, Jones Peckover, Denbigh

• There was limited supply of land coming to the market in 2015, but we saw good prices generated due to latent demand. Just over 90 acres of land in Gresford, near Wrexham, sold for £8,500-£22,000/acre with an average of £11,500/acre.
• There may be an increased supply of land to the market after the downturn in milk and lamb prices, so some farmers may need to release capital. This will continue to be met with strong demand from those in a stronger position.
• Changes in support payments have delayed land coming to the market, while farmers seek to establish entitlements under the new system. The strong pound is affecting all farmers, with the exchange rate leading to a comparative reduction in subsidy payments. The weak euro has also lead to to lower lamb prices.
• Demand remains very location specific. In some areas many farmers are looking to grow their businesses while other locations only appeal at the right price.

 William Richards, Carter Jonas, Bangor

• We found 2015 was generally an extension of 2014 as a lack of supply meant prices remained buoyant. Sales have been for grazing land for the most part, with strong demand for the best land from existing business operators looking to expand as well as lifestyle and equestrian purchasers.
• Arable land has been in short supply. The effect of poor farmgate prices and subsidy changes have not appeared to affect the market too much, although the effect of these pressures may still come to the fore.
• There is likely to be a lack of supply in 2016, meaning that prices are likely to firm up slightly. There remains strong interest from existing business operators looking to expand and land purchases will continue to be an attractive proposition from a business and investment point of view.
• The strength of the rental sector in the early part of the year helped to make land an attractive purchase proposition although we may start to see the strain in this sector filtering through to the land market in 2016.    
• Good-quality land, particularly grazing land, is in demand. The most difficult properties to sell are those where the client has aspirations in terms of a sale price that is in excess of what the market is telling us.

Peter Lewis, Wright Marshall, Chester

• The main trend in 2015 was the continuing demand for bare land, with the prices obtained in previous years being maintained. A sale of 150 acres by auction in 11 lots on behalf of Flintshire County Council, with a 100% clearance, averaged  just under £10,500/acre. This highlighted the continuing strength of land in this area.
• It is expected there will be a similar trend of sales arising from retirement and death, with potentially some additional sales due to pressure on the region’s dairy producers in particular.
• Within Flintshire, Denbighshire and Wrexham Borough there was a slightly increased supply, though this may be related to the sales by Flintshire County Council.
• Purchases in the market covered by us tend to be influenced by farmers seeking to acquire adjoining or nearby land, which often is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
• In line with national trends, the dairying sector has come under significant pressure where producers do not have the benefit of a premium contract. 
• All types of farmland have been in demand, though as expected, parcels of versatile grazing/silage/cropping land with good road frontage and access in noted areas were most keenly sought after. Heavier purely grazing land is  slightly harder to sell, though this is dependent upon the vendors expectations.