Climate challenge: Modelling the cost on an arable farm

For the first time, the impact of changing weather patterns on a farmer’s pocket has been modelled. Jez Fredenburgh kicks off Farmers Weekly’s climate series looking at the effects on an arable enterprise.

A farmer’s day is ruled by the weather. For arable enterprises, this is particularly so during key seasonal periods. But planning for the next week, month, or even year or two isn’t enough anymore, say advisers.

Throughout November, farmers and growers will undertake innovative training from The Farming Advice Service (FAS), The Andersons Centre, Adas and the Environment Agency, aimed at encouraging longer-term business planning that is underpinned by weather scenarios. 

“The intention is to encourage people to factor the impact of climate and weather in to their business planning proactively rather than reactively,” says Hugh Martineau, principle consultant at Ricardo-AEA, which runs FAS.

“We accept that some of these impacts are very difficult to avoid, but awareness of the risks can be factored in to financial forecasting and investment decisions.” 

An exercise developed by The Andersons Centre and Adas has achieved this by modelling the impact of weather scenarios on different farms.

George Cook, senior business consultant at the Andersons Centre, says: “As far as I am aware, this is the first time this has been done on a business basis, where [the impact of] changing weather patterns [on farm businesses] have been quantified.”

The key is to start thinking more flexibly, says Mr Cook, and for growers to think about solutions for their own farms, as these will change from business to business.

The focus should be on better business management, a fresh look at coping strategies and improving their understanding of soil management.

Mr Martineau says farmers can undertake analysis more specific to their own farm using this approach as a template.

“It is a useful basis for weather-based sensitivity analysis by considering the impacts of weather on variable inputs, labour and machinery,” he says.