UK facing third-worst cereal harvest in 40 years

UK cereal output is expected to be more than 3m tonnes down on the five-year average this season, making 2024 one of the worst harvests in decades.

New analysis of government data shows the true toll that months of heavy rain had on planting and establishment, with a predicted 13% reduction in yields of wheat, winter and spring barley, oats and oilseed rape.

See also: Harvest 24 – Hard wheats outperform soft varieties in Kelso

This data suggests that England is heading for one of its worst harvests on record with the wheat harvest down by almost a fifth.

In Scotland, further heavy rain is worsening the situation and it is believed that, as at 6 September, only 10% of spring barley and a small area of wheat had been harvested in the North East region, where 35mm of rain fell last week.

Estimates

In England, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has used provisional data on English crop areas for wheat, winter and spring barley, oats and oilseed rape, combined with yield forecasts from the AHDB, to estimate this year’s harvest.

The ECIU says output is set to be among of the worst three since detailed records began in 1983, just behind 2020 and 2001.

This will leave the UK dependent on imports to meet demand for bread and other baked goods.

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, described 2024 as “one to forget” for many growers.

“More than most, farmers are on the front line of climate change, and this is what that looks like,” he said.

The English wheat harvest is estimated to be more than 2.2m tonnes (18%) down on 2023.
There are also question marks over whether some wheat will make the grade for milling.

Sunshine

NFU Scotland’s combinable crops committee chair, Jack Stevenson, said: “We need at least three weeks of sunshine to get the harvest in and next year’s winter crops planted.”

“This has been a challenging growing season,” he admitted.

“We have good crops, but fingers crossed for a break in the weather to allow us to get them harvested.”