Scottish beef herd numbers in decline, survey reveals

Scotland’s beef sector looks set for further decline with high input costs and flat-lining prices to blame, a survey has revealed.

NFU Scotland’s (NFUS) 2023 Intentions Survey was carried out in early January with support from Quality Meat Scotland.

It sought to assess the damage to farm and crofting businesses caused by fuel, feed and fertiliser prices, which remain at close-to-record highs.

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Analysis of responses point to an average beef herd size of just 143 cows – a reduction of 4% versus last year.

This is on top of 12% falls to a total of 413,000 cows recorded by the Scottish government agricultural census, between 2011 and 2021.

Among the 349 beef farmers who completed the survey, 26 businesses (7.5%) indicated they planned to quit altogether.

While two out of five hoped to maintain herd sizes, comments revealed little confidence in future profitability.

Farmers based their low expectations on a combination of poor market prices and raised input costs. Respondents also cited a lack of clarity on future government support schemes.

Most beef enterprises (67%) suggested they were already running a tighter culling policy to improve resilience.

Strategy change

Beef farmers also suggested they were making strategy changes, with 49% shifting to selling directly to finishers.

A significant proportion (38%) said they were looking finish more of their own cattle.

Some cattle farmers also indicated they would move out of beef production and into sheep management instead. This bolstered predicted flock sizes by 2%, the survey revealed.

Other resilience strategies included:

• Reducing fertiliser usage
• Increasing the proportion of home-grown feeds
• Incorporating nutrient management plans to improve soil fertility
• Switching to outwintering stock.

Asked what policy changes would restore confidence, most suggested an increase in price at slaughter and retail for both beef and sheep.

Respondents also called for an increased marketing drive around Scotch beef and lamb.

NFUS livestock committee chairman Hugh Fraser said: “These results highlight the scale and depleting confidence levels of beef-producing members.

“It is imperative the industry is given support and clarity from the Scottish government on the future so that we can confidently invest in our farms.”