UK finished pig prices stabilise at 211p/kg amid tight supply
© Tim Scrivener Finished pig prices have remained at about 211p/kg deadweight during the past nine weeks as processors continue to resist any upturn.
UK prices peaked last summer at 225p/kg deadweight and then faced five months of freefall during late 2023 and early 2024, but a diminished stock of pigs across Europe and the UK has since helped to restabilise prices.
See also: Latest pig prices
Throughputs in the UK have dwindled, with clean pig slaughterings in February down 1.4% compared with the same month last year.
In 2023, total pigmeat production was down 11% on the year at 927,000t, which was the lowest annual volume for five years.
Lower throughputs at abattoirs are also likely over Easter as sites work on shorter killing weeks due to the bank holidays.
Matthew Banks, pig marketing specialist at Meadow Quality, said fresh trade demand was quieter due to the four-day week, but prices were “stand on” to firmer.
“Pig numbers are becoming tighter just when demand should show signs of improvement,” he added.
Europe
Total EU pigmeat production dropped by 7% during 2023 to 20.59m tonnes, following similar falls in 2021 and 2022.
The gap between EU and UK prices has narrowed as demand on the Continent rallies, with EU pig prices up 5% on the previous month as of 26 March.
Freya Shuttleworth, AHDB senior livestock analyst, said: “European pig prices have seen some significant movements in the first 11 weeks of the year.
“In the first five weeks, prices dropped off sharply, losing on average 12p/kg, on the back of seasonally weak demand.
“However, in the latest six weeks prices have recovered, gaining 14p to average 185.6p/kg deadweight. All key producing nations have recorded strong growth in recent weeks on the back of tightening supplies.”
Longer term, the EU Commission is forecasting EU pigmeat production to fall by 2.2m tonnes by 2035, with production set to reduce by about 1% each year for the next decade.
Cost of production
Lower feed costs and stable pig prices leave a steady margin for producers at current levels.
However, the sector is still feeling the longer-term effects from heavy losses throughout 2021 and 2022, which resulted in a contraction of the breeding herd.
Pig marketing group Thames Valley Cambac said producers were certainly in the black, but still a fair way off recovering from the massive losses.
Cost of production was back below £2/kg for pig producers in the later stages of 2023, averaging 195p/kg during the final quarter.
Lower wheat prices so far this year will have helped costs to ease back further.
Spot wheat prices have climbed to about £167/t ex-farm in the past week, but still remain low by historic standards, with barley following a similar trend at a £25/t discount.
Compound pig feed prices at the end of 2023 were at £308/t according to Defra, down from £387/t a year earlier.