Tight supply to support global pork trade in 2023

Lower pork production in North America, Europe and Asia has prompted a drop in global supplies, according to the multinational co-operative bank, Rabobank.

Production growth has been limited due to a combination of high costs and constraints caused by demand uncertainty, the bank explained in its Global Pork Quarterly Q4 2022 report. 

It forecast that lower global pork inventories and tight supplies would support trade in the final quarter of 2022 and into early 2023.

See also: UK red meat promoted at top French food and ag show

Key export destinations such as China were already noticing rising pork prices and consumer demand was projected to recover into next year.

Christine McCracken, senior analyst at Rabobank said: “Efforts to stabilise production in some regions have been slow due to productivity challenges and consumer uncertainty, resulting in improved trade prospects for 2023.

“Moreover, recent price setbacks and government interventions to stabilise food prices could work to strengthen demand,” she said.

Inflation was also having some impact on trade. Pork traditionally performs better than other proteins in a weaker market, however, Rabobank cautioned that lower consumer confidence could yet impact global pork prices.

Retail pork volumes are expected to increase towards the end of 2022 with improved Christmas demand predicted, the report added.

However, this is yet to be seen in the UK domestic market.

Scottish pig producer group Scotlean said that shorter demand than supply continued against expectations as the festive season started to feature on the horizon.

Europe

Pork production in the EU-27 and UK combined was estimated to have declined by about 4% to 5% during 2022, according to Rabobank figures.

The UK, Germany, Poland, and Denmark have seen the biggest reductions and production is expected to continue declining during the final quarter of 2022.

Rising feed and energy costs on farm and tight margins have been the main drivers behind the drop in production.

Average pig carcass prices were up by 55% year on year for the week ending 25 September and were up by 37% compared to the five-year average.