Smaller breeding flock to keep lamb prices elevated in 2025

Domestic lamb prices are due to remain supported during much of 2025 as a result of fewer breeding ewes and a smaller lamb crop.

The UK breeding sheep flock has been in decline for the past three years and is forecast to fall by a further 2.5% in 2025, according to the AHDB.

A higher carryover of lambs from last year could mean throughputs at abattoirs are up in the short term, which could put some pressure on prices, but a smaller 2025-26 lamb crop should help to support prices in the longer term.

See also: Depleted NI sheep flock leads to urgent calls for support

Finished lamb prices have been high for some time, with the GB deadweight SQQ at 736.9p/kg for the week ending 15 February, up by almost 50p/kg on the same week last year.

Lamb prices were well supported throughout 2024 due to tight supplies with the lowest sheep slaughter levels in years, according to Hybu Cig Cymru (HCC) – Meat Promotion Wales.

HCC analyst Glesni Phillips said: “The average price reached a low of 606p/kg in January, but then reached a high of 893p/kg at the end of May as new-season lambs came onto the market.

“The difference between the lowest and the highest price was 288p/kg, while the average did not fall below year-earlier levels at all during 2024.”

Looking forward, Ms Phillips says the decline in lamb numbers may constrain supply in 2025 and beyond.

The 2025-26 lamb crop is estimated to be down by 2% at 15.5m head, primarily due to fewer breeding ewes.

Industry reports suggest scanning percentages have been fairly typical, while rearing rates may be slightly higher on the year, but diseases such as Schmallenberg could still pose a risk to numbers.

Becky Smith, senior livestock analyst at the AHDB, said: “The reduction in the breeding flock is a key concern for the long-term sustainability of the sheepmeat sector.

“While the carryover of 2024-born lambs will boost slaughter numbers in the short term, the overall forecast for 2025 reflects ongoing challenges in maintaining flock sizes, which will impact lamb production in the years to come.”

Kim Heath, lead retail insight manager at the AHDB, added: “In 2024, total lamb volumes increased by 6% year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing red meat.”

However, the levy board forecasts that demand volumes for lamb will be down by 2% in 2025, due in part to high prices and economic uncertainty.

Auction markets

Finished lambs at auction markets in England and Wales averaged 347.78p/kg for the week ending 15 February, with throughputs up slightly on the week.

Hoggs sold to £180 a head at Frome Livestock Market on 12 February, with a top price of 352p/kg.

Frome Auctioneer Ross Whitcombe said there was a superb entry of hoggs, with lighter lambs well in demand, while heavier lambs also enjoyed a flying trade.