Firm lamb trade forecast after grass-driven yearlings hit £180

Firm forecasts for breeding lambs have been mooted following confident shearling sales powered by strong pasture growth and a liveweight lamb price above 250p/kg all summer.

Buyer confidence is greater and more consistent in areas hit by drought in 2022, but shearling prices have fallen short of the old yardstick of “two prime lambs buy a shearling”.

Having cashed strong Mule shearlings for £160-£190 or more, auctioneers believe there should be sufficient cash to buy lambs, and grass availability should improve running lamb demand. Moreover, some farms will look to replenish numbers after culling hard and buying less last year.

See also: Lamb prices above last year’s levels despite seasonal falls

Greg MacDougall at Bentham Auction Mart said if last year’s main Bentham Mule gimmer lamb sale average of £119.27 could be matched, it would be a good trade.

Mr MacDougall said ample grass growth had slowed store lamb marketings. “A lot of people are farming lambs bigger. I’d say there have been 500-1,000 head less at most of our store lamb sales.”

Additionally, the southern vendors that were forced to bring lambs up north to the grass had no reason to come this year, and some local farms had lower scans and tricky lambings, meaning there were fewer lambs around, he added.  

He said Cheviot Mule shearlings had been up £8 a head, Mashams back a bit to £164, and North of England Mules had inched £3 higher to £180 apiece. Texel bidding was to a clear budget, with more demand for half Texels than three-quarter Texels.

Strict budgets

Key factors weighing on prices are rising interest rates, farm restructuring and feed costs, which have amounted to £20-£30 a lamb for many this year.

Store lamb sales have been firm, with typical values at £75-£80 a head most weeks, in line with last year.

Prime lambs have tracked closely to last summer’s levels and been 15-20p/kg dearer on the year in August. Deadweight lamb demand has supported some prices rises recently, stretching the deadweight quotes to 525-550p/kg.