Factories could struggle to contain £5/kg beef price

Beef finishers may have to get used to buying short-term store cattle at 280-300p/kg, such is the strong outlook for the market, say trade sources.

Scottish finishers are on base prices of 493p/kg this week, with a blind eye being turned to weight limits and more than £5/kg available for large, even loads of cattle.

Meat traders suggest the two short weeks either side of the Easter weekend will limit slaughtering and any price increases in the short term. Beyond Easter, they suggest warmer weather could force a rise in the market if burgers and barbecue cuts are in demand.

See also: Finisher and shopper concerns as beef price hits £5/kg

Neil Shand, the National Beef Association chief executive, said although predictions had been very hard to make over the past three years, things were set fair for beef prices.

“There is no other indication to suggest anything other than a good beef trade this year,” he said.

“Beef mince is affordable and versatile and that is what has held it in good stead through the cost-of-living crisis so far.”

But he stressed that finishers had to pay £1,800 for forward cattle that would have cost £1,400 last year, meaning “there is more money being tied up in fewer cattle”.

Mr Shand said recent market trends had blown the standard processor arguments for suppressing beef prices “out of the water”.

• Chicken is a rival meat and beef won’t compete if it gets too expensive Beef is rivalling chicken on value now (see table).
• Meat-free alternatives are disrupting the marketplace He said all retailers were reporting poor performance of these products. Meat-free sales were down 12.9% in volume and 6.3% in value in January (AHDB/Kantar). This continued a trend of shoppers buying 3.4% less product on the year in 2022, although value did grow 2.2%. More than 96% of households bought meat in January.
• Imports are more competitive Europe’s beef herd has continued shrinking, back another 1.5% last year to 69.4 million head of bovines last summer, pushing European prices to historic highs. Irish beef prices have closed the gap on British prices. They were only 26p/kg behind UK trade last week and have been on par at times this year. Live exports (mostly to the EU) are up 11,500 head to more than 28,000 calves this year (BordBia).