Beef outlook suggests prices could remain firm

Farmgate beef prices look like remaining high in the short term, according to Welsh meat promotion body Hybu Cig Cymru (HCC).

HCC’s latest report – Beef Supply – Update and Outlook 2021 suggests supply of prime cattle is likely to remain tight.

Defra production figures for June show UK prime cattle slaughterings totalled 163,300 head – a decrease of 16,600 compared with the same month last year. Total beef and veal production was also back in June to total 72,000t, which is 8% below last year’s levels.

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The first six months of 2021 saw prime cattle slaughterings down by 3% year on year.

Glesni Phillips, data analyst at HCC, said: “British Cattle Movement Service figures indicate a tighter supply of cattle on the GB market in the short term, along with tighter supplies in Ireland. This position could support farmgate prices, especially if the demand for locally sourced beef at retail stays relatively firm.

“Some industry reports predict that beef may not maintain the high retail sales seen in recent months, with demand shifting back to food service and pre-Covid consumer trends. However, it may still be above levels seen in 2019.”

Meadow Quality livestock market specialist Stuart Vile said: “Prices are likely to remain supported in the short term as the numbers of cattle coming forward remain low.”

However, he added that prices may drop back in the autumn, when supplies of cattle coming forward are expected to increase.

“This is due to concerns over delays and potential backlogs at abattoirs caused by staffing shortages within the sector,” he said.

Looking ahead, the number of cattle aged between 0-12 months is up 1% compared with the previous year, so supply of prime cattle further down the line could rise, depending on the season and feed costs.