GB dairy youngstock surge counters another milking herd fall

A sharp rise in youngstock numbers has countered a further contraction in the size of the national milking herd – lifting the total GB dairy female population by 0.7%.

According to British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS) data, at 1 October 2021, there were 1.67 million animals in the milking herd and 932,000 dairy youngstock up to two years of age.

For the milking herd, this represents a 1.7% decline in numbers, by 29,000, compared with the same point in 2020, but youngstock numbers were up by 5.3% – 47,000 higher than a year ago. 

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This means that dairy female numbers overall have risen by 17,000 in that 12 months.

The rise in dairy replacement numbers is a pattern that has been evident since January 2020, said Katherine Jack, dairy analyst at the AHDB.

As a result, there is potential for increases in the scale of the national herd over the next two or more years as these youngstock start to enter the milking herd, she said.

Meanwhile, the fall in milking cow numbers follows a long-term pattern – the small rise in numbers between July and October 2021 is seen annually.

Margins will influence cow numbers going forward; although milk prices have been rising, they are competing with higher input and labour costs.

Ms Jack said if the economics don’t favour expanding individual herds, farmers are likely to cull older animals to make space for the new ones instead.