Wheat market shows modest rally as Black Sea tension mounts

Wheat markets enjoyed a slight rally at the start of this week, in response to news that the US has given permission for Ukraine to use its missiles to strike further into Russia, heightening political tension in the Black Sea region.

UK feed wheat futures climbed £2-£3/t to £179.5/t as Farmers Weekly went to press on Wednesday (20 November) for the November position, while May 2025 futures enjoyed a similar increase to £192.40/t.

Ex-farm values were also a touch better than last week, with the Farmers Weekly average feed wheat price quoted at £176.9/t.

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“There is a slight war risk premium factored in,” said AHDB grain analyst Matt Darragh. “But it is limited as recent attacks from Russia have not really targeted grain infrastructure.”

Overall, Mr Darragh said the wheat market was “quiet”.  “There has not been a lot of farmer selling, and globally the picture is improving,” he added.

Latest figures from the US put 49% of the planted wheat crop as “good” or “excellent”, compared with just 38% a few weeks ago – the highest for five years at this stage.

French plantings had also caught up after a delayed start, which was limiting any market upside.

Global markets were also well supplied with Black Sea grain, Mr Darragh said, with Ukraine having already used up half its self-imposed 16.2m tonne export cap (designed to keep more grain at home), and Russia also moving “at pace” to ship its grain, with 4m tonnes exported in November compared with 3.2m tonnes in the same month last year.

A bumper Australian harvest is also about to hit the global market.

Range bound

Despite the small rally this week, Simon Wilcox of traders Cefetra said the domestic UK market was still “range bound”.

“Even though we have a smaller UK crop this year, there was some carryover from the 2023 harvest, and imports have already happened to offset any shortfall.

“There is no doubt that geopolitics is back on the agenda,” he added. “But it is hard to know which way things will go.

“Will president Putin react to the latest provocation in Ukraine and escalate things? Or, with Donald Trump heading to the White House, will he hold out for a peace deal that will enable him to keep more land?

“My advice is that farmers should not trade on ‘what ifs’, but watch the market closely and try and sell a bit on those days when the price rallies.”