Russia’s wheat harvest prospects dented by dry, cold spell
© Tim Scrivener Analysts have lowered their prospects for Russia’s 2024 wheat harvest following extreme weather events this spring.
Southern Russia, which grows up to 40% of the country’s wheat crop, has been hit by the driest April in a decade, followed by severe frosts in some areas.
Three of Russia’s key grain-growing regions – Lipetsk, Voronezh and Tambov – announced a state of emergency on Wednesday 8 May due to frost damage to local crops. Other crops, including maize, oilseed rape and sunflowers have also been affected.
See also: UK plantings improve but still poor as wheat hits £190/t
Markets firm SovEcon has consequently lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2024 from 93m tonnes to 89.6m tonnes.
Andre Sizov, head of SovEcon, said with no significant rainfall forecast for southern Russia, the likelihood is for wheat harvest prospects to “get worse, rather than better”.
He said: “I believe recent weather problems in Russia were one of the main drivers behind the rally in global wheat prices. The Matif wheat futures market is nervous.
“We are very likely to have a relatively low wheat crop in the EU. There are big problems in France and in the UK, some problems in Germany too.”
Ukraine forecast down
The Ukrainian Grain Association has previously forecast a 20m tonne wheat crop for Ukraine this year, (down from 23m tonnes in 2023) and much lower than its record high of 33m tonnes due to a lower area planted amid ongoing hostilities with Russia.
Olivia Bonser, the AHDB’s senior analyst covering cereals and oilseeds, reported this week that weather conditions in Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, remained a key driver for global market price direction last weekend.
“Russian export prices are climbing as a result, with 12.5% Russian wheat scheduled for June FOB delivery quoted at $216/t on Friday, up $4/t on the week (LSEG),” said Ms Bonser.
The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates monthly report, which will provide an update on global wheat supplies, is due out on Friday 10 May.