Poor UK harvest increases reliance on imported grains
© Gary Naylor Photography UK wheat production plummeted to 11.1m tonnes in 2024, a drop of 2.9m tonnes on the previous year, according to provisional estimates.
This figure represents a 21% fall on the five-year average and will lead to a greater reliance on imports to meet domestic demand.
Despite tighter supplies in the UK, wheat prices remain fairly muted with limited consumer interest being reported by traders and pressure from global markets.
See also: UK wheat demand hit by limited access to EU biofuels market
UK feed wheat futures for the November contract opened at £183.55/t on 16 October, having fallen by more than £6/t on the week.
Overall, winter crops were the worst hit last year due to the wet conditions, whereas spring crops made better progress despite a late planting window.
UK barley production was pegged at 7.2m tonnes for 2024, up by 300,000t on the year, but still below the five-year average.
Oilseed rape production fell by more than 30% on the year to total just 837,000t, the lowest figure for more than 40 years and less than half of the UK’s own domestic requirement.
Meanwhile, oat production came in at just under 1m tonnes.
Gabriel Odiase, cereals and oilseeds analyst at AHDB, said: “The provisional figures show widely expected falls in UK wheat and OSR production.
“While the wheat crop is still larger than 2020’s historically low figure, OSR output is provisionally the lowest since 1983.”
Looking ahead, traders at Cefetra say wet weather this autumn has hindered planting progress in many areas across the UK.
Supplies of physical grains remain limited in the UK as growers concentrate on sowing winter cereals, which has allowed delivery premiums to rise, according to ADM.
Global drivers
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report on 11 October hinted at reduced global supplies and consumption.
It said: “Supplies are reduced 1.9m tonnes to 1.06bn tonnes primarily on reduced production for the EU, Russia, India, and Brazil.”
Global grain markets have appeared slightly bearish, with both Chicago and Paris futures falling back in the last week.
Andrey Sizov, head of market analysis firm SovEcon, suggested that agricultural markets had fallen due to rains in Brazil and a sharp drop in oil prices.
Mr Sizov said: “Additional pressure on the wheat market came from rainfall starting in the European part of Russia.
“Speculative funds actively sold all major crops in Chicago – maize, soyabeans, and wheat.”
EU production
Similarly to the UK, grain production in the EU was affected by adverse weather in the past year and the wet autumn so far has continued to impact cropping intentions for 2024-25.
The EU Commission has forecast EU cereals production at 260.9m tonnes for 2024-25, which is the lowest figure in the past decade and 7% down on the five-year average.
EU cereal exports for the 2024-25 crop year are forecast to fall by more than 20% on the year.