Oilseeds trading at £376/t with EU rapeseed crop set to shrink
© Tim Scrivener Domestic oilseeds markets remain slightly bullish with a heavy reliance on imports into the UK and across Europe.
European trade association Coceral has forecast the combined EU 27 and UK rapeseed crop at 19.4m tonnes this year, down on its earlier estimate of 20.2m tonnes and below last year’s figure of 21.4m tonnes.
Delivered oilseeds prices were quoted for harvest at £376/t in Liverpool and Erith, Kent on 18 June, and £388/t for November 2024.
See also: UK crop conditions improve in May but supplies still tight
Meanwhile, Paris rapeseed futures (Matif) closed at €457/t (£385/t) on 17 June, down by almost €12/t (£10/t) on week-earlier levels.
Owen Cligg, trading manager at United Oilseeds, said: “The [UK] crop size for the coming harvest is estimated to be only around 280,000ha of surviving rapeseed, which is going to put production down probably to 850,000t as an estimate.
“This is the lowest it has been since about 1984, so it is a significant challenge.”
He said there was potentially 2m tonnes of demand in the UK, with the ADM site in Erith alone likely to have a requirement of 1m tonnes – bigger than the whole UK rapeseed crop.
EU shortfall
Mr Cligg said the EU crop size was likely to be close to 18m tonnes, or potentially a bit lower, and there was crush demand within Europe of about 25m to 27m tonnes, meaning it would have to import.
The EU would be reliant on Canada, Ukraine and Australia for imports, he said.
However, EU Commission analysis suggests rapeseed production in Ukraine could fall by 12% this harvest, due to lower yields in the south of the country.
Similarly, crops in Australia are forecast to be lower this year with the Australian Department of Agriculture forecasting its rapeseed crop at 4.9m tonnes, down from 8.2m tonnes last year.
Global supplies are expected to be tight this year and canola from Canada could make up some of the shortfall in the EU market.