Mixed outlook for UK wheat in 2025 driven by global markets
© Tim Scrivener UK wheat markets in 2025 will remain at the discretion of major global influences, with supplies out of the Black Sea and US geopolitics likely to dictate any immediate price movements.
UK wheat futures hovered around the £190/t mark for much of December for the May 2025 contract.
Traders at both ADM and Frontier have suggested the UK faces a mixed outlook for wheat.
See also: UK wheat markets likely to return above £200/t in early 2025
Merchants at ADM added: “While South American weather continues to support expectations for ample supplies, a reduction in Russian wheat production and ongoing competition in the global export market could keep the market volatile.”
The AHDB has forecast the market to remain fairly neutral in the short term.
Millie Askew, lead cereals and oilseeds analyst at AHDB, said: “A massive watch point for early 2025 is going to be US policy changes following the inauguration of Trump in January.
“There have been some concerns that substantial changes to policies around trade, tariffs and energy under the new administration could have a negative impact on US agricultural markets, and thus a watch point for global price movement.”
However, she added that potential changes to US policy on gasoline could lead to greater demand for maize in bioethanol production and may have a positive knock-on impact on wheat markets.
Cost of production
Analysis of the 2024 harvest results by data firm Yagro found that winter wheat provided the “bulk of gross margin” for most arable farmers.
Yields were back slightly at 8.41t/ha and the cropping area was greatly reduced due to a wet drilling window.
Dr Thomas Gate, senior data analyst at Yagro, said: “One of the standout findings this year was the significant decrease in winter wheat’s cost of production, driven by a 34.6% reduction in fertiliser. This led to an overall cost reduction of 19.5% a hectare and 16.9% a tonne compared to 2023.
“While this drop is a welcome reprieve, it’s worth noting that costs remain higher than pre-2019 levels – by 23.4% a hectare and 39.9% a tonne.”