Larger UK wheat production area forecast for 2025
© Tim Scrivener UK wheat production is forecast to be about 12.5m tonnes this year, based on an estimated planted area of 1.6m hectares and an average yield of 7.8t/ha.
This represents a 1.4m tonne increase on last year, but production is still expected to fall below historic averages after wet conditions across much of the south of England disrupting plantings again over the winter period.
Helen Plant, senior cereals and oilseeds analyst at the AHDB, said: “The next few months, as spring drilling progresses and the winter crops develop, will be key for indicating what we can expect yield-wise.
See also: Milling wheat premium falls to £26/t as imports flood market
“Given a challenging start, achieving the average to five-year maximum yield across the UK would require particularly favourable conditions for the rest of the season.”
Global wheat production estimates by the US Department of Agriculture forecast a drop of 11.4m tonnes on the year, totalling 2.28bn tonnes.
The AHDB’s cereals market outlook suggests that wheat production is likely to be higher in the US and Argentina, but potentially lower in Russia, Ukraine and the EU.
Black Sea market analysis firm SovEcon has reduced its Russian wheat export estimate to 42.2m tonnes as a result of a slower pace of shipments.
This figure compares with estimated Russian exports of 52.4m tonnes last year and a three-year average of 44.2m tonnes.
SovEcon managing director Andrey Sizov said the market remained too optimistic about Russia’s wheat export potential this season.
“Limited domestic supply, a strong ruble, and negative exporter margins suggest that the export pace is unlikely to accelerate substantially in the near future,” he said. “With historically tight global wheat supply and demand balances, this should provide support to global prices until the end of the season.”
New crop premium
UK feed wheat futures for the May 2025 contract opened at £182.7/t on 26 February, down by almost £4/t on the week. New crop prices remain at a premium, with November 2025 futures opening at £195.6/t.
Traders at ADM Agriculture suggest the widened price gap in the past week has provided farmers with a good selling opportunity for new crop.