Larger UK wheat crop forecast as prices remain under pressure
© Tim Scrivener UK wheat production has been projected at 13.1m tonnes for this year’s harvest, with favourable weather in recent months helping crops to progress in the ground.
This is up by 2m tonnes on last year’s wheat crop, but still marginally below 2023 levels.
The latest Crop Development report published by the AHDB, in partnership with Adas, showed that 67% of the GB winter wheat crop was classed as in either excellent or good condition at the end of March.
This compares to just 33% at the same point last year.
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Winter barley has also progressed well, with 70% in good to excellent condition, up from 38% last year.
Spring drilling appears to be well under way, with more than 70% of spring crops already drilled in some regions by late March.
Senior AHDB cereals and oilseeds analyst Helen Plant, said: “The weather conditions have also helped to control pests, weeds and diseases compared to last year’s warmer temperatures.”
The wheat crop in Europe has also got off to a strong start for the year, with the EU Commission forecasting production at 126.5m tonnes, up by 13% on the year.
Meanwhile, wheat plantings in the US appear to be back, which may add some support to global grain markets, if production in the US falls as expected.
UK feed wheat futures have remained under pressure, opening at £165.55/t for the May 2025 contract on 2 April, £14/t below month earlier levels.
New crop wheat held a £20/t premium over old crop, with the November 2025 contract at £185.5/t on 2 April.
US president Donald Trump’s new tariffs are likely to cause some disruption to global trade flows for commodities, but how much grain prices are affected will depend on which sectors are hit hardest and any countermeasures introduced by other countries.