Lacklustre wheat markets discourage farmer selling
© Tim Scrivener Very little grain is being sold off farm at present as uninspiring wheat prices encourage arable enterprises to hold on in hope of better returns in the new year.
Ex-farm feed wheat prices collected by Farmers Weekly on 11 December averaged £177.50/t, while milling wheat stood at £208/t.
Looking further ahead, the May 2025 UK feed wheat futures contract opened at £187.10/t on 11 December, up slightly since the start of the month but still at relatively low levels.
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UK futures have been trading lower relative to EU markets, according to Cefetra, as the market remains quiet and in need of some new impetus for both feed and milling wheat.
Grain merchants at Cefetra said: “With the new year around the corner, there is no demand from mills over the December period.
“Furthermore, activity from merchants over December is very little.”
However, there has been some regional variation, with ethanol producers reportedly paying a premium for feed wheat in order to secure supplies in the North East.
Global markets
Poorer crop conditions and tighter supplies across Europe and Russia could help to offer some support to wheat prices in 2025.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report on 10 December, which showed global tighter supplies at 1.06bn tonnes for 2024-25.
Rhett Montgomery, lead market analyst at US analytical firm DTN, said global wheat ending stocks, excluding China, were at the lowest levels for 15 years.
He added: “There was a slight decrease in world production from 2m tonnes, also looking at exports for Russia they [USDA] did decrease that by 1m tonnes.
“The USDA is saying they expect most of Russia’s export programme to be completed by the time a quota is put in place.
“Russia really dictates wheat markets at the moment as they account for between 20% and 25% of world exports.”
Andrey Sizov, head of market analysis firm SovEcon, added that the first vessel carrying 430,000t of wheat purchased by GASC [Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities] back in September had reportedly now departed Russian ports.