Grain markets fall in anticipation of new Black Sea deal
Loading grain at the port of Odesa © Adobe Stock Global grain markets have slipped further following news that Russia may look to restart the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which previously allowed the safe passage of Ukrainian grain through the region.
A potential revival of the grain deal was discussed between US and Russian officials meeting in Saudi Arabia on 24 March.
US sources told the Reuters news agency the talks were going “extremely well” and a “positive announcement in the near future” was expected.
The UN says negotiations are under way and it is for the parties to decide on a new agreement.
See also: Lacklustre wheat markets leave margins tight for UK growers
Chicago and Paris wheat futures both fell on the news, with Paris dropping back by 2%.
Meanwhile, May 2025 UK feed wheat futures fell to a contract low of £170.20/t on 24 March, down £6.50/t on the week and £23/t lower than at the beginning of the year.
Traders at merchant Dewing Grain said talks to discuss the potential reinstatement of the deal were enough to prompt funds to sell wheat.
Russian agricultural consultancy Ikar also increased its Russian wheat crop forecast for 2025 from 81m tonnes to 82.5m tonnes, indicating that more grain may be available to export.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was signed in July 2022 to allow grain exports from three Ukrainian ports in the war-torn region: Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi.
However, no extension of the deal was agreed and it expired in July 2023.
More than 1,000 vessels carrying grain and agricultural goods benefited from the initiative, and roughly 32m tonnes of grain and food products were exported.