Farmers reluctant to sell as wheat prices fall to £176/t

UK wheat prices have faltered in the past week due to bearish global grain factors, limited exports and adverse exchange rates tempering the market.

Spot prices collected by Farmers Weekly on 29 January put feed wheat at £176/t, with milling wheat at a £31/t premium.

UK feed wheat futures opened at £187.95/t mid-week for the May 2025 contract, after having fallen to a six-month low of £185/t on 27 January.

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Pressure was put on global markets this week after Argentina lowered its export taxes on wheat, from 12% to 9.5%, from 27 January until 30 June.

Analysts at market insight firm Expana said the temporary reduction in export taxes by the Argentinian government is expected to reshape the grain market and have a lasting effect for the coming months.

Traders in the UK have struggled to find buying demand for grain in any position, according to merchants at Dewing Grain.

However, markets have started to recover more recently as more bullish factors emerge, and analysts at CRM Agri say prices have moved steadily higher and strong basis levels indicates reasonable demand for domestic wheat.

Limited exports

UK wheat exports remain well back on the previous year, but the UK is not alone, with export volumes down across the EU.

Andrey Sizov, head of market analysis firm SovEcon, said: “Soft wheat exports from the EU in the 2024-25 season totalled 12.2m tonnes, down 37% from the previous year.”

Meanwhile, wheat export volumes out of Ukraine have reportedly plummeted from 1.84m tonnes to 789,000t in December, following the introduction of minimum export prices from 1 December.

Peter McMeekin, grain market commentator for Grain Brokers Australia, said: “Essentially, the [Ukrainian] government has introduced a system that prohibits the sale of agricultural consignments at prices below those set by the government.

“The drop reflects Ukraine’s reliance on its own Black Sea ports despite constant Russian attacks on logistics and shipping infrastructure.”

Grain verification scheme

Last week, the UK, Ukraine, and Lithuania signed a memorandum agreeing to establish a grain verification scheme to protect food security by tracking stolen grain from Ukraine.

Defra minister Daniel Zeichner said: “The UK’s support for Ukraine is ironclad. The grain verification scheme will support Ukraine’s essential food supply and helps guarantee their security in the face of Russian aggression.”

Ukrainian agricultural minister Vitaliy Koval said: “This co-operation is an example of how Ukraine, the UK and Lithuania are working together to create new standards of safety and fairness in the agricultural sector that will impact the future of food security around the world.”