Higher world grain production forecast

World production of wheat and coarse grains is forecast at 1,976m tonnes by the International Grains Council’s latest report. This adds a further 17m tonnes to the harvest outlook since last month and is only just below last season’s record.

The weight of grain has continued to press on the market, although tempered by the uncertainty over the implications of the conflict in Ukraine and, for wheat, an increasingly tight outlook for premium quality supplies, said the report.

Most of the increase in production is as a result of a better outlook for Chinese, EU and Russian wheat, said the IGC.

A record maize crop in forecast for the US, while there are upward revisions for Brazil, the EU and Ukraine.

See also: How speculative investors impact grain market

Increased feed grain consumption is expected to account for 12m of the additional 17m tonnes of production to leave a slightly higher end of season carryover stock and the volume of world grain trade is expected to be the second highest ever, at 292m tonnes.

Projected global soya bean output in 2014-15 is broadly unchanged from last month’s report, at 304m tonnes. This represents an 8% year-on-year increase, which should result in stock building and export prices have already reduced in August, said the report.

This was another week where markets remained divided between reports of bumper US corn/spring wheat yields (although harvest remains delayed by rain) and tension in the Black Sea region, said Gleadell’s David Sheppard in his weekly market report.

Late on Friday (29 August) and in very thin volumes, London’s feed wheat futures market was slightly firmer on the day at £122.50/t for November 2014 and £124.50/t for January 2015.