EU predicts above average harvest 2014

The EU has forecast the new European cereal harvest to beat the average for the second year running.

Estimated production of about 303m tonnes would slightly exceed 2013-14 and would be 5.5% higher than the average.

Winter crops have been supported by milder weather, limited frost and sufficient humidity, while dryness and drought in parts of Spain and France remained a threat, the European Commission said in its short-term outlook.

The strong performance would help refill stocks and keep up the growth in exports, which are already estimated to hit a record of 42m tonnes in the 2013-14 marketing year, the report said.

Livestock

European beef production is expected to grow slowly, despite dropping 8.3% between 2011 and 2013.

Production is forecast to grow 1.4% in 2014 and then 2.3% in 2015, driven by a growth in the dairy herd.

The commission anticipates the sharp fall in farmgate prices to help beef consumption, which would rise from 10.5kg a person in 2014 to 10.7kg/year after.

Lamb producers should expect “moderate” expansion in 2014 and 2015, as better prices, good forage conditions in northern Europe and lower cereal prices encourage farmers to grow.

Pig meat production is forecast to rise just 0.2%, with greater supplies from Denmark and the Netherlands offsetting drops in France, Germany and Spain.

Dairy

In the run-up to quota abolition in April 2015, EU milk deliveries are forecast to grow 2.8% to 145.3m tonnes this year.

The commission suggests that pressure on farmgate and commodity prices and competition for land will put a brake on rapid growth.

It forecasts a 2.3% rise in European milk deliveries for 2015.