Potato exports to Eastern Europe are picking up, which, together with lower yields and increasing domestic demand, are creating a tighter feel to the market.

The GB average price hit £145.57/t in the week ending 19 November, more than £24 above the mid-October lows and 50% up on year-ago levels, according to the Potato Council‘s latest report.

“Export levels, especially to Russia, are very positive news for growers,” said Jim Davies, senior analyst at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB). “Current movements are more than 2000t/week – including stocks from Ireland – and enquiries continue to grow, with some large orders for December delivery reported.”

“The market is also expecting stocks to be lower – production in the key north-western EU member states was marked down by 8.4% back in September, and people are now looking to secure end-of-season supplies.”

This week, best packing prices have firmed, with 60% baker material up £10-20/t. Best King Edward is worth £210-220/t ex-farm, Desiree similar and other reds at £175-190/t. Good whites are worth £150-160/t, Estima slightly more and best Piper up to £200/t in the east.

Prices for lower-quality material remain steady, although grower confidence is increasing.

Free-market processing volumes are expected to increase through to Christmas. Most Piper for chipping are fetching £105-115/t, Dell and Estima £90-95 in the Midlands. Good peelers are worth £80/t ex-farm, with best Piper and King Edward achieving £20 more.

How long the export drive continues remains to be seen. Large swathes of Eastern Europe and Russia were hit by drought last summer, with some estimates suggesting yields are down by 40% on normal.

If borne out, hundreds of thousands of tonnes could be shipped from the EU eastwards as governments look to shore up supplies. Belgium, Germany, The Netherlands and France were all exporting in October, helping to firm values across the Channel. UK supplies include Midlands-sourced Desiree and Wilja – destined for Russia via The Netherlands – making £140/t, with Piper worth about £10 less.

Estima and Marfona going directly to Russia from the south are making up to £180/t, according to Potato Council figures.

Independent consultant David Hudson reckons the export trade could remain strong for some time.

“Potatoes are worth two to three times as much on the Continent as last year, and European futures prices are up at around £215 for April – it’s looking quite exciting.

“Overall, it looks as though large areas of Eastern Europe need to import food to keep the public well fed – and it looks as though that will come at a big price.”

Jan Karriman, who grows 350 acres of potatoes near Wisbech in Cambridgeshire, said he had heard of several export deals being put together locally and further afield.

“But the bulk of exporting is happening in Europe – there are some colossal tonnages being talked about,” he said. “I have a friend in Holland who is very bullish and is waiting for €200/t – that’s unheard of for them.”