Forecast suggests 2016 will be among warmest years on record

The Met Office is expected to confirm that December 2015 was among the mildest on record in the UK – amid forecasts that 2016 will be among the warmest years globally.

Mid-month statistics released by the Met Office show that it was the fourth warmest start to December on record with temps 3.2C above average. The daily starting temperature on 19 December was over 10C above average in places – warmer than many summer mornings.

The mild weather, with 16C reached in many places, has meant pressure from mildew and yellow rust on susceptible winter wheat crops. Mildew is also a problem in some forward winter barley. Large canopies are persisting in oilseed rape and weed pressure is also developing.

See also: Volatile weather threatens UK food production

The Met Office said there were “vast temperature differences” between December 2010 – the coldest December on record – and December 2015. Overnight minimum temperatures during the weekend before Christmas were around 12C last month compared with -12C five years ago.

Looking ahead, the global mean temperature for 2016 is expected to be between 0.72C and 0.96C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0C, with a central estimate of 0.84C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.

Met Office research fellow Chris Folland said: “2015 is on track to be the warmest year on record, and this forecast suggests 2016 is likely to be at least as warm, if not warmer.”

The outlook for 2016 is warmer than the Met Office’s forecast for 2015, which was for temperatures to be 0.64C. Data from January to October 2015 shows the global mean temperature for this year was 0.72C above average for the first nine months of the year.

The forecast for 2016 places the coming year among the warmest on record. The forecast takes into account the impact of man-made global warming, which is exacerbated by the effect of the El Nino phenomenon from unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean.

Met Office forecasters said the latest prediction meant that 2014, 2015 and 2016 were all likely to be among the warmest years on record – although they don’t expect this run of back-to-back records to continue indefinitely.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “This forecast suggests that by the end of 2016 we will have seen three record, or near-record years in a row for global temperatures.”