New Zealand sheep production fall could benefit UK producers
© Rex Lower forecasted sheepmeat production in New Zealand next year could increase the competitiveness of UK production.
Beef and Lamb New Zealand has forecast the country’s sheepmeat export volumes to fall 6.3% in the 2015-16 season as a result of a smaller flock after drought. Â
Production in Australia, the second biggest sheep meat producer after New Zealand, is also expected to tighten after a four-year drought increased slaughterings.
See also: Three Aussie farmers share their drought stories
The EU and UK – where production has been high – could provide increased competition on the global market as a result, said AHDB Beef and Lamb.
Mark Kozlowski, senior analyst for sheep at the levy board, said the drop in New Zealand exports would affect the UK, but that there were a number of factors that could come in to play.
The NZ dollar was weak and if it continued to be it could increase competitiveness of the country’s exports to the UK, where the pound was strong, he said. Â
Drought will impact New Zealand sheep production
A hard drought, which has particularly affected the eastern side of New Zealand, has affected breeding ewe numbers as winter feed ran out and livestock were culled early. The country’s sheep flock fell by 4% in the year to 30 June 2015 to 28.6m head.
This combined with lower body conditioning of breeding ewes and bad weather around tupping has reduced scanning results.
New Zealand’s lamb crop is expected to fall 7% next year to 19.4m head as a result – the lowest slaughtering levels since 2011-12 when bad weather led to severe losses at lambing.
Sheepmeat exports are projected to fall to about 354,600t, with higher carcass weights offsetting some of the fall in slaughterings.
New Zealand imports to UK
Sheepmeat imports from New Zealand to the UK were up 14% in July compared with the same month last year, according to AHDB Beef and Lamb.
This took New Zealand’s share of sheepmeat imports to the UK to 80%, compared to 69% and 65% in July of 2014 and 2013 respectively.
However, sheepmeat imports from all countries to the UK fell slightly, driven by shrinking imports from Australia as producers continued to battle drought and develop other markets.
Overall sheepmeat imports fell 2% in July this year and by 4% in the first seven months of the year to 64,000t.