How agricultural imports and exports reacted to world events in 2015

The movement of agricultural commodities depends on key trends and events, whether climatic, political or economic.

Farmers Weekly asked the AHDB’s export teams for an insight on 2015.

This included more well known events, such as the reduction of dairy imports from China owing to large domestic stocks and Russia’s import ban on food goods from the EU US and Australia, compounding the global oversupply of milk.

Other, less well known events, were the opening up and development of export markets for British goods in Cuba, Vietnam, Canada and Gabon.

North America

BEEF: CANADA

UK granted market access
As of November, UK boneless beef cuts were given access to the Canadian market. Work on US access progresses. The volume potential is difficult to quantify at this stage as it depends on factors such as currency movements and the attitudes of exporters.  

WHEAT: US

Third year of global surplus
Bumper global grain crops, including those in the US, Baltic States and Black Sea, resulted in a fiercely competitive export market for UK grain, both within and outside the EU. This was compounded by big crops in 2013 and 2014.

POTATOES: CUBA

Market opens
The Cuban market opened to GB in January. Trade with Russia also restarted and further trade with India looked hopeful after a trade mission in July. This all helped reduce GB’s reliance on north African markets.

South America

BEEF: BRAZIL

More exports
With the Brazilian real low and domestic consumption dampened by the economic crisis, the competitiveness of Brazilian meat exports increased worldwide.

Europe

BEEF: IRELAND

Ireland eyes UK
Low prices and demand in continental Europe forced Irish beef processors to focus more on exporting to the UK. In the year to September 2015, Irish beef exports to the UK totalled 136,500t – up 7% year-on-year and accounting for 70% if all UK beef imports.

CHICKEN: UK

Influenza and the Russian ban
Key markets for UK chickenmeat, including South Africa, West African and South Korea, closed their borders to UK exports after avian influenza was first detected in East Yorkshire in 2014. The Russian import ban on EU agricultural goods added to the large volume of poultrymeat on the UK domestic market. About £35m was knocked off the value of UK chickenmeat exports in the first half of 2015 compared with the same period last year.

WHEAT: UK

Quantity and quality of crop
Large and relatively good quality UK wheat crops in 2014 and 2015 reduced wheat imports.

DAIRY: UK

Global oversupply
High production and low global demand increased competition between nations looking to get the best possible price for their products. The UK had to offer a better export price, while also competing with nations looking to export to us. Average UK farmgate prices fell about 13.5% between December 2014 and December 2015. (See China and Russia, below.)

POTATOES: ENGLAND & SCOTLAND

Health status continues
Scotland and northern England’s reputation for disease-free potato seeds continued to grow internationally. In 2014-15, seed exports to non-EU countries were up 15.5% on the previous year, to the highest-ever total of more than 90,000t, pushing Dutch seed off the top spot.

BARLEY: EU

Increased demand
EU and UK barley exports benefited from stronger international demand for beer and animal feed.

BEEF: FRANCE

Farmer protests
UK lamb exports dropped 20% in June as protesting French farmers blockaded trade routes and stopped retailers selling imported meat.

BEEF, PORK & WHEAT: EU

Currency woes
The fall of the euro against sterling reduced the price competitiveness of UK beef, pork and grain in continental Europe, causing a fall in UK exports of beef and pork to the EU. Meanwhile, the weakness of the Russian rouble and Ukrainian hryvnia meant even tougher competition for UK grain in international markets.

Eurasia

DAIRY: RUSSIA

Import ban
Russia’s import ban on agricultural goods from the EU, US and Australia hit many sectors, particularly dairy, as 30% of EU dairy products were exported to Russia before the ban. This added to the global oversupply of milk on the market.

Asia

PORK: CHINA

Bigger appetite
Two years of reduced pigmeat production and increased consumption in China led to a 71% rise in EU pork exports to the country. The UK became China’s sixth biggest pork supplier in 2014, accounting for 42,000t.

POTATOES: VIETNAM

Growing middle class
After a bilateral trade deal was struck between the UK and Vietnam in 2014, exports of GB potato seed to Vietnam increased as a rising middle class continued to stimulate demand for crisping and chipping potatoes.

DAIRY: CHINA

Large domestic stocks
A build-up of domestic dairy stocks reduced the country’s demand for imports – the opposite of what had been expected. With global production at an all-time high, this left even more milk on the market, lowering global milk prices.

Africa

BEEF: CENTRAL AFRICA

UK mission
Despite the fall of commodity prices, an AHDB-led commercial mission to Gabon, Congo and DR Congo found “plenty of demand” for cheap meat cuts. The levy board is facilitating further market access.

Australia and New Zealand

BEEF: AUSTRALIA

Drought
Sheepmeat exports to the UK fell as, battling chronic drought, Australian producers continued to develop markets in Asia instead. Lamb exports to the UK increased to 80% in July, up from 69% in the same month last year.

BEEF: NEW ZEALAND

Chinese demand on the decline
Despite the shrinking New Zealand flock, reduced Chinese demand diverted New Zealand sheepmeat products to Europe.

For a more detailed analysis view the trade flow map