Grain markets steady after post-EU vote rise

Grain markets are relatively stable, although physical trade is slow as the first combines start to roll.

London wheat futures have seen a slight improvement over the past week, with November rising by more than £1 yesterday (Wednesday 13 July), to close at £123.20/t, while physical prices have been fairly static.

Feed wheat averaged about £108/t ex-farm spot yesterday – very similar to a week earlier – with August prices in a range from £105/t in north-east Scotland to £110-£113/t ex-farm in other regions including central southern England, Essex, Hertfordshire and Yorkshire (£113/t).

See also: Global grain insight – markets will be driven by weather regardless of Brexit

Group one full-spec milling premiums were at £21-£30/t, depending on location. Feed barley averaged about £95/t ex-farm for harvest, with spot oilseed rape averaging about £272/t ex-farm.

The USDA’s latest global report increased estimated wheat production to 738.5m tonnes, although higher consumption led to a 4.1m tonne cut in end-of-season stocks to 253.7m tonnes – 9.2m tonnes up on 2015-16 and still a record high.

European wheat estimates

European wheat production estimates are being revised down almost weekly as initial evidence of yields and quality showed a sharp decline, with the French agriculture ministry also reducing its production forecast for wheat and winter barley by 10% year-on-year.

The USDA report cut corn stocks by more than expected as exports increased, with soya bean figures in line with analysts’ forecasts. Although a forecast for hot, dry weather meant US soya bean markets improved, a 2% rise in the value of sterling against the euro and dollar kept UK rapeseed prices under pressure.